Two weeks ago we published the test before running it: with three seasons and 40,000+ verified calls graded, does a show's accuracy last season predict its accuracy this season?
We locked the method in public so we couldn't fish for the answer we wanted. Here's what came back.
The answer: not detectably. Not yet.
Across the 12 shows with enough verified calls in both 2024 and 2025, last season's rankings showed no real relationship to this season's. The top half stayed top half slightly more often than chance, but not enough to matter. Same for the bottom. The sit-only version came back the same way.
Twelve shows is a small sample and we said so up front. This doesn't prove rankings are meaningless. It proves that right now, nobody can honestly claim last year's leaderboard tells you who to trust this year. Including us. So we won't.
What did survive is the finding that matters more.
In 34 of 38 show-seasons with meaningful sample sizes in our corpus, the same pattern held: shows are a coin flip at telling you who to start, and genuinely good at telling you who to sit. Three seasons. Nearly every show.
The receipts:
"I'm gonna bench Olave with the rookie quarterback... just not knowing what Spencer Rattler is going to be able to do." The Fantasy Footballers, Week 6 2024. Olave: -1 point. receipt
"If you have Deshaun Watson, I wouldn't count on him this week." Fantasy Football Today, Week 7 2023. Watson: -0.8. receipt
"Mostert probably shouldn't be in starting lineups going forward." PFF, Week 11 2024. Mostert: -0.2. receipt
What this means for you: when a show tells you who to bench, listen. That's the verified skill in this industry. When they tell you who to start, that's entertainment. This season's live record, updated weekly with receipts on every call, is the honest signal. Last season's trophy is not.
What's next: we're testing whether the player matters more than the analyst. Some players might be predictable and others coin flips no matter who's talking. And this test reruns every summer as the record grows. 12 shows becomes 24, then 40. We publish whatever it says. That was the deal. This post is us keeping it.
Every number in this article traces back to a receipt. See the live board, or how the bar is actually computed.